Northern Ireland's Fourth Carbon Budget - Advice for the Northern Ireland Executive

Authors: Climate Change Committee

The climate is changing. 2024 was the warmest year on record, at 1.6ºC above pre-industrial average levels. Global warming has unequivocally been caused by greenhouse gas emissions, with 100% of the observed long-term temperature change attributable to human causes. The Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022 (the Act) sets the framework for the Northern Ireland Executive to address climate change. The Act has an ambitious target to reach Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 as well as decadal targets and five-yearly caps on emissions in Northern Ireland, known as carbon budgets, that started in 2023. The Committee is required to advise the Northern Ireland Executive on the level of these targets. Our recommended level for Northern Ireland’s Fourth Carbon Budget is a 77% reduction in average annual emissions compared to the 1990 baseline, over the five-year period from 2038 to 2042. In line with the Act, this excludes Northern Ireland’s contribution to international aviation and shipping. This would be challenging but achievable, putting Northern Ireland on the path to deliver its targets under the Act. With the First Carbon Budget already well underway, the Northern Ireland Executive will need to broaden and accelerate action from today and through the 2030s in order to meet the Fourth Carbon Budget. Supportive policies could accelerate change, learning lessons from successful approaches elsewhere. The electrification of key technologies (such as cars, home heating, and industrial heat), together with the expansion and decarbonisation of the electricity supply system, provide more than half of the reduction in emissions required to meet the Fourth Carbon Budget. Most of these technologies are well established and costs are falling fast. Clean, efficient, electric technologies will mean reduced air pollution and should mean lower energy bills than continued reliance on fossil fuel technologies. There is scope for rapid progress on electrification in Northern Ireland. Agriculture is currently Northern Ireland’s highest-emitting sector. The right incentives and support need to be in place for farmers and land managers to adopt low-carbon practices in food production and to diversify land use from livestock farming to measures such as peatland restoration and woodland creation. Alongside these, there will also need to be action on reducing demand for high-carbon goods and services; low-carbon fuels, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and low-carbon farming; and engineered removals. We estimate that the net costs of Net Zero will be around 0.2% of GDP per year on average in our pathway. Much of this investment, in particular in energy supply, electric vehicles (EVs), and heat pumps, generates operational savings as inefficient fossil fuel technologies are replaced by more efficient electric alternatives. Much of the investment needed for our pathway is expected to come from the private sector. There are also opportunities for new jobs in areas such as heat pump installation and manufacture. Reducing dependency on fossil fuels will increase economic resilience against price shocks in volatile international fossil fuel markets. Our advice is based on the latest technological, social, and economic evidence; extensive sector modelling; and engagement with stakeholders. Decisions remain with the Northern Ireland Executive and the Assembly.